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Will a direct line between spy-masters help?



I can feel these days a tenuous consensus building among security experts in India and Pakistan for some kind of institutionalised interaction between intelligence agencies of the two countries. It all began with a rare meeting between Pak ISI chief Shuja Pasha and defense advisors in the Indian High Commission in Islamabad.

The discussions took place in the run-up to Dr Manmohan Singh’s talks with Yousaf Raza Gilani at Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. It appeared from Pasha’s remarks that Rawalpindi— the real center of power in that country— was looking for a direct line with Indian Army and intelligence community.

Arguments supportive of the idea do not apply to India where the Army and intelligence organisations are accountable to the elected political leadership. But from the way power is covertly or overtly shared and exercised in Pakistan, it would be realistic to keep the Army and its intelligence arm, the ISI, in the loop on key Indo-Pak initiatives.

Such an approach will make them accountable for undelivered promises (in fighting terror and bringing perpetrators of Mumbai to book) by reducing scope for them playing spoilsport or putting the blame on elected regimes that have never had a table where the buck stops.

Pak agencies have been a law unto themselves since the days of Zia-ul-Haq. They have unlimited ability to rubbish peace plans or character assassinate peaceniks as anti-Pakistan. A politico or an activist so branded loses relevance or is all the time fighting the myth of being pro-India even if he’s of Benazir Bhutto’s stature of that of Khan Abdul Wali Khan.

These aberrations make New Delhi worry about the standing of the government or the leader with whom it’s engaging, with the Army. Pro-democracy activists claim that such doubts on India’s part weaken Pakistan’s quest for democracy and are an insult to the popular mandate. A case now in point is that of Asif Zardari. Earlier we had Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (hanged for being popular) and Benazir and Nawaz Sharif, twice bundled out midway through their terms.

That makes perhaps a case for engagement between army and intelligence establishments. It might be easier said than achieved but even those experts who harbor deep distrust of Pakistan’s armed forces — that waged proxy wars against India to avenge Bangladesh— agree the common threat of terrorism offered the two sides the first real opportunity in 62 years for strategic cooperation.

Arguments against such an approach could be many. But it’s an option worth a try. Or so it seems. If the R&AW and the ISI do open a secret line, they wouldn’t be doing so for the first time. Their officials met in the past under Congress and BJP-led regimes.

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Posted by Vinod Sharma on Monday, September 7, 2009 at 8:29 pm 
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  • Atul Barry

    Mr. Sharma:

    At the height of the Cold War, there was communication between CIA and KGB and a hotline between DC and Kremlin. I see the ISI-RAW linkage as a worthwhile step, at least worth a try.

    One should also take notice that political visitors to Pakistan never leave without meeting General Kayani, even though they may skip Mr. Zardari. This is realpolitik and we should have a direct communication with those in actual power, regardless of how undesirable it is, like India deals with the junta in Myanmar and with Communist China for its own national interests.

    That is how international relations are: you fight and you talk.

    Regards,
    Atul Barry

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  • Nikhil

    Will a direct line between spy-masters help? May be yes or may be not. We, atleast, can cross out one more option in the long list of things that we have done till now.

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  • http://incorrectpolitically.wordpress.com/ Akhilesh

    The eternal peacencik speaks again. But for once I agree with you Vinod ji.

    Cheers !

    [Reply]

    vinod Reply:
    September 8th, 2009 at 12:13 pm

    Thanx Akhilesh, some comfort after a lot of effort.

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    Akhilesh Reply:
    September 8th, 2009 at 2:42 pm

    Appreciate your sense of humour !

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  • ram

    Dear Vinod Ji,

    Sorry to say you are living in a utopian world and do not face harsh realities of India’s neighbourhood. Though I cannot claim any sort of expertise Indian polity have not learned from thousand strikes policy of Pakistan ISI and Army and continued war on terror on defenceless Indians ??1993—-2009 what have the notable successes and how Pakistani wold in sheep’s clothing getting away under democratic disguise-if your friends and family had been murdered by terrorists you would not have offered such poor advice. How many 26/11s do you need to be convinced of falsehood?As long as Pakistan is under China and American umbrella is there any ghost of chance to achieve your utopian dream? In fact it is the weak Indian leadership contrasted with strong leadership in Pakistan and China we are facing doomsday scenario. Instead of strengthening military in peace we are inviting enemy to attack by exposing our weaknesses ad nauseum! The recent report of American scientists on huge Pakistan nuclear arsenal only once again exposes hollowness of any peace overtures to Pakistan.

    Regards

    Ram

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    Akhilesh Reply:
    September 8th, 2009 at 2:53 pm

    Ram,
    The direct line between intelligence agencies is not necessarily a peace move.

    It helps that the principal protagnist in the theatre against India – the ISI and the Pakistan Army – are engaged directly. The first fundamental of war is that one must be completely aware of the enemy. In times of actual war, it is that crucial knowledge that can prove to be the winner. But how does one know of the enemy without engaging it?

    And although I think the political class of Pakistan too is not favourably inclined towards India ( unlike Vinod Sharma – and there I disagree with him again) – it is the Army and the ISI who call the actual shots. Thus talking to the political class all the time is one- waste of time, two – unproductive and three – deprives us of access to the real enemy, should there indeed be war.

    Infact in many ways, we have not learned from our own history and epics. Lord Ram never stopped talking to Ravana, while all the time preparing for the actual war. Even in the actual war, it was Vibhishan who helped him deliver the knockout punch.

    Who knows, while talking to ISI, we may find our own Vibhishan ! Thats what the intelligence agencies revel in, don’t they?

    Regards,

    [Reply]

    Atul Reply:
    September 8th, 2009 at 4:11 pm

    I like the line of reasoning, and a couple of my friends in Intelligence confirm that interactions do take place amongst various agencies on the ground.

    Having been to Pakistan just once, I was overwhelmed by the affection of the local people. For example, the chai wallah did not take money from me once he found out I was from India. I have attended a few Indo Pakistani weddings, and the overall carmaderie amongst families and friends has been amazing.

    At the political level I tend to believe that anti India rhetoric will certainly form a part of their armoury, not to mention Kashmir.

    But what about the clergy? Dont they have a say as well?

    [Reply]

    vinod Reply:
    September 8th, 2009 at 7:01 pm

    Dear Atul,
    I am in agreement with your understanding of how systems work across and within nation-states. There are issues that can and must be debated in public. But in the final analysis, elected leaders cannot always allow themselves to be guided by popular sentiments. Institutional democracy like individual rights within a democratic framework is crucial to governance. Did Nixon not open doors to China, did Camp David not entail risks for Sadat and Begin? Both initiatives lacked popular consensus but are retrospectively hailed as pathbreaking.
    As one who advocates dialogue and a holistic approach to dealing with Pakistan — or any other country hostile to India — I’m unable to reason the popular Indian obsession with the likes of Hafiz Saeed. As the big power in the region, New Delhi has to take a big picture approach that would take care of the LeTs and the Jamat ud Dawaas.

    Atul Reply:
    September 9th, 2009 at 9:55 am

    It appears that the democratic framework is not being allowed to function freely

    We can only wish them good luck in achieving political stability, and hope for the best.

  • sohail

    Talking alone is never going to help.Decisions have to be made if decisions cannot be made then forget about talks no matter with who you are talking.

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  • Syed

    In my earlier post to your blog – Fear a way of lifein pakistan, i had mentioned that pakistan needed to radically overhaul its secular education system to attract students who would otherwise go to the taliban madarsas.
    Its in the news today that pak will be allotting 7% of its GNP on secular education which is indeed a huge percentage. Seems that they are readying themselves for the long slog…
    Coming back to this blog, i feel it is not just important, nay essential that there is no communication gap between india & pak between the people who hold the actual power.
    A lot of us will be aware that on several occassions the USA & USSR cane close to nuclear war. The only thing that stopped it was good communications. For India & Pak. the need is all the more crying. ICBMs targeted from USA to USSR will take hours to reach their target. I recall reading that pakistan’s ghauri missile can reach delhi in 2 minutes (and vice versa).
    So there is practically no room for error.

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  • Sanjay Pradhan

    Pakistan’s establishment military and ISI are the powerful epicenters of the system and given edge against to India as compared to other part of world, although it was an impression but NATO ally also realized after working with them in the war against terrorism. Bush’s administration booted camp in the military regimen while Obama administration is already working with establishment, in fact many decisions have been done behind the curtains. India should also realize this fact as soon as possible to open dialog and establish direst hotline between military and ISI for better relationship that may give us chance to reduce their immunity against India, eventually help us to neutralize possible threats in future. Pakistan’s political system is very week and tried to improve relationship in past several occasion but failed or threatened in case of improving relationship with India. You can recall statement of Mr. Zardari’s regarding their foreign policy as India is no longer threat to Pakistan vice versa, and Pakistan has change doctrine no first use of nuclear bomb, although he is elected member and having good mandate but it is not accepted by their establishment, couple of days latter Mumbai carnage has done. We did some experiments in past, let us try with this new arrangement may be this can work out.

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