Hindustan Times
Reality check for TV channels
Is the TV boom over? It is certainly beginning to seem that way. In the English news space, only the Big Three (NDTV, Times and CNN-IBN) continue to rule the roost. Though Headlines Today has improved enormously, it has still to crash into the ranks of the Big Three. None of the new channels seem to have made an impact. And even then, I doubt if a single English news channel is making a profit. That’s why they are all cutting back, shedding staff and slashing salaries.
In the Hindi space, a virtual bloodbath is under way. Not one of the new channels that were launched in the last 18 months seems likely to survive. All of them are bleeding heavily and many have ceased operation.
Most interesting of all is the Hindi entertainment space. Two years ago, the conventional wisdom was that it was only a matter of time before Zee overtook Star Plus. Then, people began to say that we were heading for a situation where all the channels would have roughly the same share of a fragmented market with one being slightly ahead one week only to lose the top spot the following week. This hypothesis was altered again once Star convincingly beat off the threat from Zee. Now, people began to say that the top channels would continue to flourish and that there was no room for new entrants.
Over the last few months, even that view has been discarded. The spectacular success of Colours, which is now a serious threat to Star Plus, has demonstrated that there is always room for the right kind of new entrant.
On the other hand, it’s beginning to look as though there is no room for the wrong kind of entrant. Of the new channels, 9X has collapsed and Real has got off to a poor start. Real’s first week GRPs are significantly lower than the launch GRPs for any new channel, with the exception of 9X.
Sahara and Star One muddle along while Sony faces so much turmoil internally that it is hard to see it as a serious player in the months ahead. Even NDTV Imagine has not lived up to its early promise.
Of the proposed new launches, not one is likely to go ahead. Even Anil Ambani’s Big TV has put its plans on hold. Other software companies that spoke of entering the entertainment channel space have retreated.
What went wrong?
Well, my view is that many of these channels recognize that they had no hope of breaking even in the foreseeable future. They knew that the TV market was over-crowded. But it was the stock market that interested them. They believed they could float their companies, sell shares to a gullible public and cash out quickly.
The recession has ended that dream.
A fallback plan was to sell shares to a foreign entertainment company. Ever since Disney came in and bought channels from UTV, entertainment bosses have believed that all you need to do is to create a channel. Some foreigner will then come and buy it from you at a profit because all foreign companies want a piece of the Indian market.
Sadly, the foreign companies no longer have the money to buy out any Indian channels.
So, what happens next? More bankruptcies; more blood-letting; and more lay-offs, I fear. The future is bleak.
Two months ago, I ran into a fund manager I know on a Jet Airways flight. Did he regret his TV investments now, I asked.
Oh, absolutely, he said. Quite apart from the fact that he had invested in the wrong people, he had now come to the conclusion that TV was a bad investment.
So, he was out of media?
Not quite, he said. He was now looking at print, which was a much better investment.
So, who knows? Perhaps TV’s loss is print’s gain!
(17 votes, average: 4.12 out of 5)
Loading ...
(4.75 out of 5)
Puneet Reply:
March 18th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
I doubt that TV’s loss will be print’s gain. They cater to a different segments altogether. However, the recession has hit them hard.
As you point out in your earlier blog: “….The media will take the biggest hit. And this year, that hit will be bigger because the last few years of spectacular growth led to increased advertising budgets and absurd media expansion. Many publishing houses ventured into businesses and products they had no understanding of, believing that the revenue from their existing cash cows would increase so dramatically that they could subsidize losses in the new businesses. That dream is now dead. That’s why some publications are closing down and others are certain to follow….”
Having said that, I still feel there is a need for serious news and entertainment programmes. Most channels need to rethink their content strategy if they are to survive.
And please, no more Reality TV, gaming shows, family sobs…oops! soaps I mean; and talent hunts!!
[Reply]
A.M.Rehan Reply:
March 18th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
I belive that 24*7 news channel is not needed and not natural. it is very difficuilt to get the news every now and then, leave aside the breaking news. the pressure of getting more TRP or GRP has change the news channel to infotainment channel and lead to sensationalism and has damage severly the perception of 4th state of democracy.These fragmentation of channels into, GEC, sports, news, films etc is disgusting. I SUGGEST OLD PATTERN OF DOORSDARSHAN ERA was more natural.
Sir we like to hear from u about the changing dynamics of journalism specially after the newschannel.
[Reply]
rahul sharma Reply:
March 18th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
I don’t think that TV will lose out. These changes are mere upheavals towards a more stable setting. As a media TV is more effective than print. Only yesterday The New York Times carried the news of a popular newspaper shutting its print edition completely. I am sure its only a matter of time before the market bounces back and we will see the TV boom yet again. As for print media, I am a die hard fan, but news is so much more interesting when its spoonfed, isn’t it?
Yatin Reply:
March 18th, 2009 at 11:53 pm
HA HA HA HA this blog has reminded me of a great melody by the legendary Freddie Mercury and his band Queen which appealed radio ” SO stick around coz we might need you when we would be tired of all these visuals” . I still find print and radio better as sorce of E-E. And how could I forget those great AIR dayz back in hostel life. SO all we need is “RADIO-GA-GA”
Rajesh Kumar Jha Reply:
March 19th, 2009 at 12:48 am
In a country like the size of India, any thing could be for a short while. So to say or think that the TV boom is over, will be jumping the gun. Of course, as you have rightly pointed out that only quality channels have survived the onslaught. So with your own logis taking a little further, if a good channel comes up in future, it will survive.