Sino-Indian Sound and Fury



India and China are back to sniping at each other. China complained publicly at Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visiting Arunachal Pradesh. India responded by wagging a finger at China building infrastructure in the Pakistani third of Kashmir. Why is this happening?

On closer inspection, the much ballyhooed rivalry between the two countries has a lot less substance than is often made out.

There isn’t any serious competition for natural resources between India and China. New Delhi refuses to subsidize such overseas forays. The Indian private sector is driven by commercial, not strategic, interests. This automatically limits Indian purchases to a fraction of China’s.

India is a reluctant player in Southeast Asia – much of its diplomatic activity there has been either because Singapore has pulled it into the region or, latterly, the Indian private sector has forced the flag to follow their trade. It has not bothered to make its economy part of the supply chains that drive the region’s economy.

India is benefiting from closer relations with countries like the US, Japan, Australia and Indonesia because of the latters’ concerns about China. And there are elements in India that buy into the idea of India playing a balancing role – but they are largely in the military and a few hard-nosed sections of the strategic community. India can’t really play such of a role for a host of economic, administrative and geographical reasons.

Which comes to geography. Take a look at a relief map of Asia. Look at a transport map of Asia. India is forced to look almost exclusively towards the Indian Ocean. About 90 per cent of China’s interests lie in every direction except its southwest. The Himalayas, the Tibetan plateau and whatnot make it that way.

If anything, what is remarkable is how little interaction there is between India and China. Virtually no one from India visits China – or vice versa.

There is trade, largely iron ore, but no investment. Indian experts in China and Chinese experts in India can be counted on two hands in both countries. It goes on. Past polls have shown that the threat perception regarding China among Indians is absurdly low.

Because they don’t really compete neither invests too much in learning about each other. Or invests in building up a more solid relationship.

Which is why the two get their knickers in a twist about pretty minor of things. China freaks out about anything regarding the Dalai Lama. India freaks out about China’s relationship with Pakistan. They both get hot and bothered about the meandering border talks. But these are symbolic, not strategic, issues. Which is why their sounds of fury never last and signify nothing.

The same, I predict, will pass with the latest kerfuffle.

Will it stay like this? It depends.

The change in the Indo-US relationship awakened a degree of concern about India being a potential balancer that didn’t exist before in China. So has the fact India has halved the “growth gap” between the two countries’ economies from about seven per cent a decade ago to about three per cent today.

A senior Western journalist told me how Jiang Zemin, soon after consolidating power in China, went to visit Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore.

Jiang asked Lee about the world. When he asked about India, Lee said, “As long as your economy grows faster than them, you don’t have to worry about them.” For the first time, there are stirrings in China that this may not be an impossibility.

But this is all still many moons away. I suspect the real rivalry will begin when China completes its present cricket training programme and fields its first international team sometime in the next five or six years.

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  • http://www.why-outsource.com Jennifer Lancey

    Well said

    [Reply]

    vijay kumar Reply:

    Pramit, thanks for the insightful article.

    Beyond rhetoric, we really have to analyse the Chinese fears.

    In times of recession people end up doing funny things: They turn to religion and blame their current leaders. Now China has put a lid on both the fronts. While Inda represents both these fronts.

    So somewhere the Chinese leaders feel scared that ethnic minorites of China may suddenly start yearning for a different government model; while the mainstream Chinese may not be fully satisifed with the current religion– money making (Making money is your religion…)

    So why not then make fun of a country which is not doing so well, in their eyes — India?

    One factor which many anlaysts have totally missed out is the rise of Mao’s son. He is now a lieutenant General. The youngest in the ranks to get this post and that too after only a few years of service. He is the head of the strategic planning has been giving press interviews, which is extremely rare for a Chinese army officer.

    It is possible that the rulers are getting jitters, seeing his rise, and are acting in the direction of Maoist thought. Maybe an outcome of the new strategy being charted out by him.

    This picture fits in totally. Every country takes a pride in the soft power and cultural and social influences it is creating world wide; While India may be proud of Shah Rukh Khan, Bhangra and Raj , Chicken Tikka Masala, the Chinese may suddenly be feeling that Maoist thought is what the world is loving. Especially considering that Nepal has had Maoists in power and large numbers of Maoists roam around India; while political buffoons like Prakash Karat love to do bhangra with Mao’s pictures in the background.

    This would have surely stirred emotions in Mao’s grandson to make the right strategies to further Mao’s name…

    I would love to hear your views on this….

    [Reply]

  • Anil

    India should never have eased pressure on TIbbet. CHinese are making these statments knowing they have bailed the cat on Tibbet for good..

    We should start embarrassing chinese for their occupation of Tibbet

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    KT Reply:

    I think that perhaps China is getting a bit more open in its displeasure toward India because it doesn’t want to see the world’s biggest democracy become the economic powerhouse next door. How then will the Chinese Communist Party quell every small seed of political dissent in the name of preserving progress? Having been to China, the government has driven the public to believe that questioning central rule is tantamount to putting the brakes on the country’s growth. India’s success story makes no sense in that context and thus, the Chinese government finds ways to make it look like India’s playing dirty.

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    Ktang Reply:

    China has been more vocal about India because it does not want the world’s biggest democracy to be the economic powerhouse next door. How else will the Chinese Communist Party convince the public that they deserve to have unchecked power over every aspect of society? Right now, they are scaring people into submission by saying that any protest against central planning is tantamount to putting the brakes on the country’s economic growth. India’s economic success story completely undermines their propaganda and thus the Chinese government is looking for other ways to convince the Chinese people that India is playing dirty.

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  • ram

    Dear Mr.Chaudhri,

    I think you are sadly mistaken. Already there are news reports that China is building huge dams on mighty river Bramhaputra which is at the centre of life in Eastern and North Eastern India. China is diverting river to its parched North East. Under this scenario this is nothing shoprt of declaration of war as this will turn Eastern India and Bangladesh into desert as population is 100% reliant on food production in ikts delta. What can be more alarming and dangerous?

    What do you propose India should do join the loonies and peaceniks- as you are aware about history no doubt autocratic regimes like these produce Nazis and Facists like Hitler and Mussolini! Once the dams are built even war will be futile!

    All this hogwash about Indian hegemony is an eyewash as in fact China rapacious and hegemonistic overtures ion Africa and support for most repressive regimes in the world is testimony of their aggressive realpolitik. As American President Obama is beholden to Chinese and held top the ransom due to its huge foreign debt owed to China and its surrogate Pakistan to astutely plays the American card. What is the explanation for development of POK by China (area ceded illegally by Pakistan to China!).

    Hope you can appreciate the Indian strategists viewpoint too and come up with more in depth research and analysis on Chinese threat to the Indian civilization.

    Regards

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    Partho Reply:

    Pramit,
    I would not be too sanguine about China and her ability (and willingness) to hurt India. And I don’t only mean militarily. The Middle Kingdom will find every exquisitely chosen moment to show us ‘our place’. It stems from a deep rooted belief that India is a soft country. The Chinese leaders have been taught to, and in 60 years since they are convinced that we deserve contempt for the way we think, the way we keep our cities, the way we react to provocation, the utter lack of statecraft our frequent outbursts show.

    As for Zemin seeking Yew’s advise – well, one would like to think that Zemin is far too astute to listen to a megalomaniac and control-freak like LKY. Would it be fair to say that LKY is seen as clever but not wise?

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  • http://nuclearsupremacyforindiaoverus.blogspot.com Satish Chandra

    (Continued)
    It is folly for India to think that India’s defence or India can get any where without destroying RAW first which means the simultaneous nuclear destruction of New Delhi, Washington and New York. India has already emplaced its nuclear warheads in these three cities. I said above that the warheads have almost certainly been sabotaged by RAW. There remained the possibility that they will work. The fact that CIA kingpin K. Subrahmanyam staged his fake death right after India said its nuclear warheads have been emplaced in a number of cities/countries (he was in Orlando, Florida a couple months ago) makes it more likely that the warheads will work. India also said a few weeks ago that the warheads already emplaced in U. S. cities are way beyond the five or six I have mentioned. India should trigger the warheads in New Delhi, Washington and New York without delay and trigger the warheads in other U. S. cities if there is any retaliation.//

    K. Subrahmanyam’s staging his fake death and fleeing to the United States does not necessarily mean that the warheads have not been sabotaged; India’s adoption of what I urged — pre-positioning nuclear warheads in U. S. cities — meant that RAW’s sabotage of India’s defence by sabotaging the development of delivery vehicles had ended and he faced punishment for his crimes against me and sabotage of India’s defence. But RAW continues its crimes against me and sabotage of India’s defence. Aside from the sabotage of the warheads themselves, there is the possibility — which is a virtual certainty — of RAW or other traitors informing the U. S. of the exact locations of the warheads in U. S. cities. These risks can be cleared by triggering the warheads right away; the longer India waits to trigger them, the greater the risks while there are no benefits from waiting.//

    There is a lot of bamboozlement about “sanctions” if India tests the warheads at Pokhran. I have shown in my blog that the things that the U. S. and other countries will stop selling India should not be buying in the first place even if they are offered on a platter and free of charge, how exports to our enemies are unnecessary and harmful and how India’s economy can grow 30% per year or more.//

    September 13, 2011: A PTI report says “Army, IAF should reconcile differences on assets: Antony: … The army contends that it should control [the Mi-35 attack helicopters] … whereas the IAF doesn’t want to lose them … This effort should be among yourselves … He said if the forces wanted, the Ministry “could also play a limited role” in the reconciliation process.” What he is saying is that the forces can test India’s nuclear warheads as a routine matter at Pokhran without reference to any one in New Delhi — as I said above should be done — and don’t have to test them by triggering them in New Delhi, Washington and New York. This does not end the sabotage of India’s defence. So long as RAW exists, neither India’s defence nor India can get anywhere. RAW has to be rubbed out, that is, all its present and past employees killed (see ‘What You Should Know About RAW’ above). This still requires the simultaneous nuclear destruction of New Delhi, Washington and New York.//

    The destruction of RAW will be just a way station to the destruction of other criminals. Later, all present and past CIA employees will have to be killed. All present and past American presidents have participated in the CIA’s crimes against India and after a trial in India — a wave of my hand will be trial enough — they will be impaled on “shoolis” in a stadium full of people. How about the crimes of the Jews and Americans in general (see my blog)? Ah, you just wait and see.//

    September 14, 2011: With the ability to destroy New Delhi, Washington and New York, India’s forces should be reporting directly and openly to me instead of saying “We have a set of advisers” and it is “dangerous territory” to refer to me or what I say. A nuclear warhead of the type emplaced in U. S. cities has to be tested and RAW has to be destroyed without delay.//

    Satish Chandra

    [Reply]

    Satish Chandra Reply:

    RAW is removing my posted comments. The content above is the second part of a comment posted in two parts because of its length. The first part, necessary to understand the second part, has been removed by RAW. In its place, see my blog titled ‘Nuclear Supremacy for India Over U. S.’ which can be found by a Yahoo search with the title.

    [Reply]

    Satish Chandra Reply:

    Tuesday, August 26, 2008
    What You Should Know About RAW
    I have written (for example in my article titled ‘India’s Technological and Economic Emancipation’ in my blog titled ‘Nuclear Supremacy For India Over U.S.’ ) about the continued control of Indian intelligence agencies by British and later American intelligence agencies after 1947. India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) was split off from the Intelligence Bureau which had continued after 1947 to be loyal to the British. Later the Americans supplanted the British and RAW functions as a branch of the CIA against India. As part of this relationship, CIA-RAW exercises extensive control over the Indian media and, among its various activities, engages in sabotage of indigenous research and development to keep India dependent on other countries for defence and other equipment (the nuclear deal is just another CIA-RAW operation of that kind, though of a scope and with consequences far graver than any such operation till now).
    An example of this is a Bharat-Rakshak discussion thread about a black box installed by the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) in the indigenously developed Arjun tank that documented the sabotage of its engines during trials by the Army; such sabotage has been the basis of the Army’s rejection, on RAW’s prompting, of the Arjun tank in favour of imports (as I said in the above article, India‘s Army is the collaborator Army that helped the British rule India and, even after Independence, all its regiments and units have retained their former identities and regularly celebrate the anniversaries of their founding by the British). A CIA-RAW operative, who serves as a moderator on Bharat-Rakshak and controls the forum, recently locked away this discussion thread so that numerous posts that had appeared documenting the sabotage of the Arjun tank were covered up. The major metropolitan newspapers, on most of which CIA-RAW exercises extensive control, have made no mention of the black box — which was like the flight data recorder in aircraft — installed by DRDO in Arjun tanks and the shocking findings about the sabotage even though a report on this was provided to them by the Indo Asian News Service (IANS).
    There is across the board sabotage by various means by CIA-RAW to keep India down technologically, economically and militarily. RAW’s grip over India is comparable to the old KGB’s grip over the Soviet Union, with the difference that whereas the KGB worked for the good of the Soviet Union, except toward the end, RAW has always worked for its imperialist paymasters. The role of politicians in governing India is insignificant compared to that of CIA-RAW but RAW has no place in the public’s consciousness or in discussions of public affairs in India.
    An important point about the sabotage of Arjun is that people on the Arjun discussion thread on Bharat-Rakshak were aghast at the Army’s behavior and calling for Army brass being tried for treason, etc. but it will be a mistake to stop with the Army; it is RAW which is behind such sabotage not just of Arjun but of India’s interests, technological, economic and other, in a lot of areas. RAW has operatives in the Army at various levels but it is necessary to go to the root of the problem. RAW has to be destroyed and I have suggested that a brand new external intelligence agency be formed with the help of military intelligence (RAW is supposed to be India’s external intelligence agency but at least 90% of its activities are within India, against India).
    The destruction of RAW does not mean simply disbanding the agency and letting its employees continue their service to the CIA through other organisations, old or new, or in other roles. It is a mammoth agency with just the number of joint secretaries in the hundreds. It is India’s real ‘government’ and the politicians and civil servants largely obey its dictates. It puts the words in the mouths of cabinet ministers, etc., and determines most policies that are, erroneously, attributed to them. Any one, even a prime minister, whom CIA-RAW considers inconvenient is eliminated, if necessary by death, as I have said regarding the deaths of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and, later, Rajiv Gandhi in my article titled ‘How India‘s economy can grow 30% per year‘ in my blog titled ‘Nuclear Supremacy For India Over US’ on blogspot which can be found by doing a Google search with the words: nuclear supremacy India Satish.
    Over the past many years, I have shown how almost all terrorist incidents in India since 1983 have been carried out by outfits controlled by the CIA either directly or through intelligence agencies in the region, including India’s RAW. The Jain Commision of Inquiry, which went into Rajiv Gandhi’s death, acknowledged that the LTTE, which carried out his assassination, was created and controlled by RAW. It was an open secret that MQM, in Pakistan’s Sindh province, when it was known as a terrorist organization, was a creation of RAW. But the same is true of many terrorist outfits that operate in India.
    Another example of RAW’s multifarious activities, that I have described in press releases, articles and letters to the press since 1987, is its spreading heroin addiction and AIDS first in India’s Northeast then elsewhere to provide the United States with a population to use as guinea pigs for AIDS vaccine development, after the CIA was assigned the task of roping in a population for this purpose. I have described how Both Rajiv Gandhi (after being blackmailed with threats of exposure of the Bofors and HDW kickbacks by Swedish and German media at the CIA‘s instigation) and Vajpayee cooperated in this. But terrorism, etc., are the least of its activities; I mentioned those only because the existence of terrorism is publicly known. Its sabotage of India’s research and development activities, of which the sabotage of the Arjun tank is just one example, is among the deadliest of its activities.
    The nuclear deal and its various aspects — replacing indigenous production of uranium and reactors with imports, the capping, rollback and elimination of India’s nuclear weapons program, media control and buying up politicians, scientists, etc. for this purpose — is just the largest and deadliest of such activities, leaving out the 24-hour satellite surveillance and all the crimes, at the cost of hundreds of millions of dollars per year for the past 31 years, against India’s greatest scientist, described in my article titled ‘How India‘s economy can grow 30% per year‘. The point is that all the tens of thousands of RAW employees are guilty of the gravest treason and deserve the death penalty. So do all those — politicians, civil servants and others — who are willing collaborators of CIA-RAW.

    [Reply]

    Satish Chandra Reply:

    INDIA IN PERIL — RAW’S SABOTAGE OF INDIA’S NUCLEAR WARHEADS://The Delhi High Court blast was carried out by RAW within a couple of hours of my pointing to RAW’S sabotage of India’s nuclear warheads, to divert attention from it. See ‘What You Should Know About RAW’ below.//NEW AIR FORCE CHIEF IS CIA-RAW MAN AS IS NEW ARMY CHIEF-DESIGNATE — SEE ‘WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT RAW’ BELOW//The head of the Strategic Forces Command is a Christian and now the head of the Indian Air Force is also a Christian, not to mention that the Defence Minister is a Christian as was his predecessor — motivated appointments, at the direction of the CIA, of armed forces chiefs who would be loyal to the Italian whcre and to the white countries, expressly made to prevent India from emerging from slavery.// Just as RAW-induced cricket fever sweeps India and does no good and a lot of harm to India, replacing real victory and supremacy over white countries, for example, with fake ‘victories’ and ’supremacy’ over enemies, Hazare’s fake fast was entertainment — the arrests and conflicts with government are meant to generate support and make/keep him a hero — sponsored by CIA-RAW to keep India ‘Gandhian’ — and so poor, weak and enslaved — due to the recent disclosure that M. K. Gandhi, a lifelong British agent, was a homosexual who wrote to the white man “How completely you have taken possession of my body. It is slavery with a vengeance”. Nehru admitted to U.S. ambassador Galbraith that he was a lifelong British agent. In my press release dated May 31, 2011 I said “In a letter which appeared in Indian Express, Delhi, under the heading “The Organ and the Keys” two decades ago, I described how RAW was supporting the half dozen terrorist groups in Sri Lanka against one another, playing them like the keys of an organ, bringing them all under its control to produce whatever music it wanted. I have said Anna Hazare’s fast was sponsored by CIA-RAW (see my blog below) but now RAW is also supporting Baba Ram Dev and if it makes him prime minister, will keep the threat of bringing his office under Lok Pal and, with true or false charges of corruption against him, keep him under its control. The Intelligence Bureau, out of which RAW was created, did this for half a century under the British — instigating Hindu-Muslim conflicts and partition of India, etc. — and continues the tactic to this day. Other activities of CIA-RAW, the real ruler of India, are deadlier, such as sabotaging its defence and economy. … In the same letter in Indian Express I pointed out that a New York Times report shortly before the 1991 General Elections and Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination said that Rajiv Gandhi told the foreign media in New Delhi that the Indian armed forces had “gone berserk in Kashmir. Human rights have been violated in Kashmir”, that this comment of his was directed at U.S. lawmakers who control the CIA money which elects and keeps India’s prime ministers in office and that the Indian press had failed to report this comment, controlled as it is by the CIA. His assassination followed within days of the publication of this letter of mine.” The entire so-called freedom struggle under M. K. Gandhi consisted of such fake struggle with the government managed by the Intelligence Bureau after the British set up the Indian National Congress through the Britisher A. O. Hume after they had killed over ten million Indians in just the ten years after 1857, depopulating entire regions so there were not enough men left to till the land: The Guardian (August 24, 2007, Internet, report by Randeep Ramesh): “India’s secret history: ‘A holocaust, one where millions disappeared…’: Author says British reprisals involved the killing of 10 m, spread over 10 years:…”; see my blog below.//Now for India’s real war of Independence. India has said that its nuclear warheads have been emplaced in various cities/countries such as New Delhi, Washington and New York. The nuclear destruction of these three cities, with a warning that additional U.S. cities will be destroyed if there is any retaliation, is the first step in the implementation of India’s National Security Doctrine. The only way the United States will be able to keep two to three additional cities from being destroyed is by doing nothing in return. Five years later India can finish the job with its coast-to-coast destruction. With the impending nuclear destruction of New Delhi, Washington and New York, nothing else matters. I am India’s expert in strategic defence, the father of India’s strategic program including the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program, the world’s greatest scientist (my biography is in Marquis’ Who’s Who in the World, 2011 and earlier editions) and India’s legitimate ruler and my blog titled ‘Nuclear Supremacy For India Over U. S.’, which can be found by a Yahoo search with the title, answers all questions.

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  • Eternity

    Rather Bureaucrats are lapdog of corrupt politicians and along with politicians Bureaucrats are the plague on common indian Army generals fight on border they fight terrorists and save every indian then only they reach golf courses and swirl wishky.but these lapdog Bureaucrats sit in ac rooms and swirl on poor indian’s blood and eat away indian money and keep black money in swiss banks secret accounts.Its the Bureaucrats who along with politician are stopping the revelation black money holder account its the Bureaucrats who are making hassan ali case weak so that he dont reveal their names.Army is true patriots Bureaucrats are true traitors. and writer of this blog is perfect chootiya ever born on earth.

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  • Redvfer

    Was the fuel used in BIC – F1, subsidized??

    [Reply]