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The much-publicized private visit of former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and DMK supreme M Karunanidhi was not totally without political significance. It is true that he had come to meet his favourite child, daughter Kanimozhi who is at present lodged in the Tihar Central Jail but simultaneously he has cautioned the Congress that they should not take things for granted.

Most important aspect of the two day visit was that he made no attempt to meet the Congress president Sonia Gandhi but conveyed whatever he had to say through the Union Home Minister P.Chidambaram and Tamil Nadu party incharge Ghulam Nabi Azad.

Sources said that he was very upset at seeing his daughter in jail and wondered why so many others who were facing similar charges were out enjoying their freedom. It was for the first time that an astute politician like Karunanidhi allowed his heart to rule over his head. Emotions it seems got the better of a very insightful political mind.

If this has happened, it is obvious that Karunanidhi realizes that his political innings are virtually over. At 87 there are very bleak chances of his ever becoming the state CM once again. He has lost power in his state and his daughter is in jail. Political logic would imply that since he was in the doghouse, it was very natural for him to keep supporting the Central government in order to shield his DMK cadres who are under a renewed attack from the AIADMK forces after the commendable victory of J.Jayalalithaa. But politics has both its logic and illogic. It is the illogic part, which the Congress must be careful about.

It should try to keep its alliance with the DMK intact if it wants to prevent any trouble from brewing up.

The party’s political managers have always failed at its most crucial moments. Everyone knows that the crisis in Andhra Pradesh could have been averted had Jaganmohan Reddy, late Y.S Rajsekhar Reddy’s son been handled with respect and care. Things are now threatening to go out of hands there and it will not be surprising if the Congress decides to change its Chief Minister in Andhra in the near foreseeable future.

Similarly, the DMK is very annoyed and hurt now. The Congress has not offered any sympathy to the Dravidian outfit, which has 18 MPs in the Lok Sabha. Instead, the top leadership of the party and the government had sent an invite to Jayalalithaa to come to Delhi. Jayalaithaa has so far chosen not to publicly respond to this public invitation, which many political observers construe as a snub of some kind. She has gone a step further to point out that the DMK could have had a role in Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination thereby implying that the Congress has so far been in an alliance with a party suspected to be behind the killing of its top leader in 1991. She has tried to portray the party’s current leadership in a poor light.

With this kind of backdrop, the Congress must ensure that Karunanidhi’s anger does not get so accentuated as to lead to a situation where the DMK withdraws its support to the UPA government. The Congress cannot afford to lose the DMK at this juncture since any help from BSP of SP to save their government will be contrary to its current policy of coming to power in UP on its own strength. It will be a big setback for Rahul Gandhi’s efforts following the Bhatta Parsaul farmer’s movement.

Politics has always been a game of possibilities. It is a game where all probabilities are placed on the chessboard and thus one by one the consequences of each are discussed. What sometimes is possible theoretically can also happen in a practical manner. Therefore, the Congress must have a contingency plan to know what will it do if the DMK even if for the sake of presumption was to withdraw support. Will Jagan or some other leader also become active at that point of time.

What will the party do if for sake of presuming, A.Raja was to deliver his speech in Parliament for the reasons behind his resigning from the Union Cabinet or if he or Kanimozhi were to become approvers in the 2G-spectrum scam? The DMK is annoyed at what its leaders say selective targeting.

Therefore, it is time when the Congress and the UPA think tank should sit down and apply its mind on how to defuse the situation vis-à-vis the DMK.

It if is not contained now, the consequences may be very critical.